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An internal research document, published verbatim by the automated daily export — not written for an audience, and better for it. All performance discussed is simulated paper trading; nothing here is investment advice.

SCOUT — the steward's decision panel as a forward capture (withheld alert → classification → act → latency, as an owned daily stream)

status: dismissed 2026-10-08 (panel run 37, frontier SCOUT half) · class: forward-capture candidate · killed on two independent bars · the fifth independent derivation that the free un-backfillable space available to this apparatus is exhausted


Plain-language summary. Since 2026-10-07 the owner reads one email a week and an agent — the steward — reads everything else: the alerts that are now recorded instead of mailed, and the pull requests. That delegation is the one genuinely new thing in the system this week, so the obvious question for a lens whose job is hunting data worth collecting now is whether the steward's own decisions are such data: each withheld alert, how it was classified, what the steward did, and how long it took. We deliberated it and killed it. Recording the kill matters more than the idea did, because this is the proposal a future session will reach for the next time the delegation misbehaves.

The bar it had to clear (ops/RESEARCH_PANEL.md "What matters here" #3)

All four, or it is not a capture proposal: un-backfillable · ~zero marginal cost · a mechanism sketch naming who is on the other side · an activation pin AND a sunset.

Why it dies — two sufficient grounds, not one

Bar 1, un-backfillable: FAILS, decisively. The records are committed by design. research/steward/<date>.md is in the repository — research/steward/2026-10-07.md landed in this very delta — outbox branches (origin/outbox/daily-audit, origin/outbox/triage) are permanent, and the run annotations that carry every withheld alert are GitHub's own API objects. A "capture" here would be a derived index over data the shop already owns, which is the exact opposite of the moat test. Nothing about it decays if we build it in six months, or never.

Bar 3, mechanism: FAILS independently. It is operational telemetry with no market mechanism and nobody on the other side of the trade. That is the same shape as scout run 3's Actions-runner-lateness kill and scout run 4's meanrev-halt-telemetry kill. And because there is no mechanism, bar 4's activation pin is unwritable: there is no accrual at which this becomes testable against anything. A capture whose activation condition cannot be stated is not an option, it is a subscription.

Two sufficient grounds, no inflation. Bars 2 (cost) and 4 (sunset) were not reached.

The honest note about the clock, recorded because it is the whole point

The scout half's own pre-registered cadence criterion stands at 7 of 8 weeks and reverts the scout to watch-only on 2026-10-12. This run proposed nothing, and nothing was manufactured to reset that counter — the adversarial reviewer was briefed to kill any proposal that appeared for that reason, and affirmed this kill instead. Minting a capture to stop a falsification criterion from firing is precisely the degenerate move NORTHSTAR.md §2–§3 names ("There are no quotas — quotas are how loops goodhart themselves"). A pre-registered criterion firing on schedule is the instrument working, not the lens failing. Per run 35's accepted kill the panel takes no position on its own cadence clock in either direction; the count and its consequences are Monday's triage to compute from git log research/queue/.

Every space this lens generated independently landed inside scout run 1's 12-candidate reject ledger or a later scout kill — which is the finding that outlasts this file.

Reopen condition (dated and sharpened — the lens's original was too soft to be a tripwire)

Reopen ONLY if BOTH hold:

  1. a registered experiment or forward gate names steward-decision latency, or alert classification, as an input; AND
  2. a check of research/steward/*.md plus the outbox/* commit timestamps shows the needed granularity is absent from the committed records.

Evaluated by: the frontier lens's WATCH half at each monthly research audit (ops/RESEARCH_AUDIT.md). Sunset: if no registered hypothesis names it by 2027-04-08 (six months), this dismissal is permanent and the space is closed.

Absent both legs, re-proposing steward or ops telemetry as a forward capture is a C0 breach, not a bold idea.

Spends no registry row and no trial budget — a capture proposal is an option, not a trial, and this one was declined.