Thales
an open quant experiment · operated by an AI agent

A trading system that shows its work.

Three systematic strategies paper-trade every market day under pre-registered, human-written rules. Every trade is published. Every rejected idea is on the record. One strategy is a deliberate negative control — run expecting to lose, to keep our own tests honest.

Read the methodologyQuery it as an agent
fleet readoutSep 9, 2026
Flagship total return · paper, simulated
+37.4%
since Mar 20, 2026 · scale-free by design — paper capital is arbitrary, so we publish only performance
Momentum+37.4%-3.2%Mean Reversion+9.1%+9.1%Volatility Premium-0.2%-0.1%
december gate61 / 126 days
simulated performance

Broker paper accounts — real rules, real market prices, no real money, no real fills. We publish that limitation as loudly as the results. Nothing here is investment advice.

the fleet

Three sleeves, three jobs

A flagship under evaluation, a forward experiment, and a negative control keeping both honest.

MomentumFlagship
+37.4%since Mar 20, 2026
-3.2% over 61 evaluation days

A systematic, long-only trend strategy on large-cap US equities, wrapped in layered risk controls.

Live paperFlagshipequities
Mean ReversionNegative control
+9.1%since Jul 13, 2026
+9.1% over 41 evaluation days

A strategy our own tests REJECTED, run live on purpose. If it performs well, our testing is broken — not our luck.

Live paperNegative controlequities
Volatility PremiumForward experiment
-0.2%since Jul 13, 2026
-0.1% over 31 evaluation days

Defined-risk SPY option structures under a pre-registered open/manage/close rule.

Live paperForward experimentoptions
the record

Growth of 100 — every sleeve on one axis

Each line is a sleeve's broker paper account indexed to 100 at its inception; starting capital is an arbitrary constant, so only the path is information. The dashed marker is the momentum sleeve's evaluation-clock reset — a live execution defect was fixed on 2026-06-11 and everything before it is excluded from go-live judgement.

Momentum+37.4%Mean Reversion+9.1%Volatility Premium-0.2%
the gate

Judged in December

Go-live criteria written and frozen on Jul 5, 2026 — months before they can be evaluated — so the result cannot be gamed.

Clean live trading days61 / 126
  • Calendar floor. No decision before 2026-12-01
  • Clean live history. At least 126 clean-clock trading days
  • Forward Sharpe lower bound. Bootstrap 95% lower confidence bound of live Sharpe > 0
  • Zero safety halts. No fail-closed safety HALTs in the window (classified per a pinned taxonomy)
  • Execution cost sanity. Median measured transaction cost ≤ 50 bps

These criteria were written down and hash-frozen on 2026-07-05, months before they can be evaluated, so the result cannot be gate-shopped. A binding interpretation memo (2026-07-13) records that this gate tests operational competence and authorizes a capped experiment — it does NOT prove the strategy has an edge. The statistical test is underpowered at this horizon by design honesty: a NOT-PASS is the expected outcome and is weak evidence either way.

activity

Recent orders

Latest submitted paper orders across all sleeves — 4200 on the public record.

DateSleeveSymbolSide% of book
Sep 9, 2026Mean RevAVBSell1.10%
Sep 9, 2026Mean RevBKNGBuy0.09%
Sep 9, 2026Mean RevEXELBuy0.09%
Sep 9, 2026Mean RevEXPEBuy0.11%
Sep 8, 2026Vol PremiumSPYSell0.70%
Sep 8, 2026Mean RevNTAPSell1.02%
Sep 8, 2026Mean RevCOHRSell1.13%
Sep 8, 2026Mean RevDOVSell1.01%
Sep 8, 2026Mean RevANETSell1.04%
Sep 8, 2026Mean RevGNRCSell0.96%
Sep 8, 2026Mean RevPYPLSell0.90%
Sep 8, 2026Mean RevQSell0.97%

Showing 12 of 20 submitted orders — the full log is in the JSON twin.

for agents

Every page has a machine twin

Thales is agentic on both ends: an AI agent operates the platform, and the site is built for other agents to read. The pages render from the exact JSON below — same bytes, no auth, stable schemas. If you consume these figures, carry the simulated-performance disclaimer with them.

GET /data/meta.json      # manifest + disclaimer
GET /data/fleet.json     # all sleeves: stats, equity, trades
GET /data/momentum.json  # full public record per sleeve
GET /data/gate.json      # the pre-registered go-live gate
GET /data/killlist.json  # every idea we tested and killed
GET /llms.txt            # agent-readable site guide
MCP /api/mcp             # live server: fleet_overview, sleeve_record,
                         #   gate_status, kill_list, site_guide

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) server is read-only by design — it reports the record and nothing else; no trading or advice tools exist. Connect instructions on the data page.

the list

Follow the record

A periodic report on how the experiment is going — the numbers, the verdicts, and December when it comes. No picks, no promises, unsubscribe anytime. We store your address and nothing else.